Coronavirus Model Predicts Over 200,000 American Deaths by October

This chart from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation shows the projection for total U.S. deaths from COVID-19 through October 1, 2020.
INSTITUTE FOR HEALTH METRICS AND EVALUATION

A coronavirus model once used by the White House now projects more than 200,000 Americans could die of COVID-19 by October 1. The prediction went up by more than 30,000 since last week.

As of Tuesday, more than 116,000 people in the U.S. have died of the coronavirus, and the death toll is still growing by hundreds per day. Infection rates and hospitalizations are rising in numerous states as businesses open up and people drop precautions.

According to the latest model from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, a research institute once utilized by the White House for coronavirus projections, another 85,000 or so deaths are now projected by October 1.

IHME’s interactive projections show that by October 1, deaths from the coronavirus in the United States could reach anywhere from 171,000 to 270,000, with a likely figure in between of about 201,129. Daily deaths from the coronavirus are expected to begin rising again in September, after they started to plateau nationwide this month for the first time.

According to the IHME, “rising mobility and premature relaxation of social distancing in some states are the main reasons” for the projected increase.

IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray explained the reasons behind the upward trend at a June 11 press briefing, before the institute raised its projections again this week.

“Starting in the third week of August in our forecast at the national level, we see the daily death rate… going up again, after having been declining since mid-April at the national level,” he said. “That increase in daily deaths really starts to gather momentum from mid-September onwards.”

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SOURCE: CBS News, Audrey McNamara